Brazil Coffee Harvest 2025: A roaster's guide to price, timing, and logistics

From patios in Minas to the wet mills of Espírito Santo, three words keep coming up: price, timing, logistics. US buyers are facing a major challenge of a 50% import tariff on Brazilian green coffee. In Europe,  buyers are finding that prices for Brazilian coffee are high and not dropping. Prices for Brazilian coffee are high. And they aren't dropping. Why? Many producers are holding onto their coffee. They are waiting for better prices before they sell. The harvest is done. Now, producers must decide when to sell and how to ship

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Key takeaways for roasters

• Higher quality, lower volume: The 2025 harvest has excellent quality and larger beans. But the total volume is slightly down, which means prices are not changing.
• Producers are waiting: Producers are holding their coffee because of unstable prices and the US tariff. They will not sell large amounts until the market is more stable.
• What you should do: Lock in the coffee profile you need and book your shipment now. 

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Image above: Ana Cláudia (Sancoffee) smelling freshly harvested coffee drying on raised beds at Fazenda Samambaia, one of Sancoffee member farms, during this year’s harvest.

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The 2025 Harvest: Quality is not the constraint

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Insights from Minas Gerais

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“We are seeing… 30%, 25% of screen 17, 18 [bean sizes, associated with quality]… Completely different from last crop that we were seeing 8%.”
Roberta Armentano, Itah Coffee

Roberta works across South and North Minas Gerais. She founded and now runs Itah Coffee, an exporter built on direct relationships and transparent execution, staying close to producers from farm advice through to shipment. 

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This season, she keeps reaching the same conclusion: 

“The quality is very good, (...) [coffees are] very uniform in terms of colour and the size of beans, (...) we don’t see much defect, (...) the cupping notes are very good.” 

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When someone asks her for lower-priced coffee, she says, “It’s hard to find.”

In Campo das Vertentes, Sancoffee's coffee is clean, smooth, and sweet with a classic milk-chocolate taste. The quality is high even though the harvest volume is lower. Fabrício Teixeira, Sancoffee’s CEO, talks about the hot weather in February and March 2025:

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“a dry short period of four, five weeks, (...) high temperatures, [causing] a reduction in density of green beans… about 15%.(...) [But] we kept the blend-friendly profile.”

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Insights from Espirito Santo

Further east, in the mountains of Espírito Santo, Farmers Coffee uses processing adapted to local conditions: selective picking, controlled fermentation, careful drying, and a modern dry-mill sorting and moisture control. As Luiz Henrique Pimenta, Head of Warehouse, notes: “our humid, mountain microclimate favours washed and pulped naturals [processing]”.

Across these linked areas - north and south Minas, Campo das Vertentes, and the Espírito Santo highlands - the pattern is clear: larger beans, cleaner preparation, fewer defects, steady cups, and washed/pulped options inside Brazil when you want extra clarity, with specialty demand at home helping well-prepared lots to move.

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Market Dynamics: Why producers are holding coffee

“Negotiations and contracts required dedication from both sides to ensure they were well structured amid price volatility.” Luiz Henrique Pimenta, Farmers Coffee

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In Espírito Santo, that means selling in steps. Farmers Coffee releases a batch when the price covers costs and leaves a margin. Luiz also notes that domestic demand is increasing, so some well-prepared lots are sold inside Brazil rather than exported immediately.

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Across Minas, Roberta describes the same pattern: 

“The market we have today, producers are really waiting to sell because they are waiting for better prices.” 

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This comes down to two simple facts. Farm costs are already set, and the next crop is still uncertain. So, producers wait for prices to cover their costs and risks. Then they sell in smaller batches.

This sales pattern is especially strong in the domestic market, where producers often sell to cover major expenses, such as fertiliser in September and crop-care products in January–February. This concentration of sales creates challenges for cooperatives, making it more difficult for them to buy coffee outside of these periods.

With Algrano, however, it's easier for the roaster to split the shipment into parts. This allows roasters to avoid the risk of running out of coffee while also being able to wait for prices to drop. It is important, though, for the roaster to analyse the logistical costs beforehand. 

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Fabrício from Sancoffee is clear: This isn't speculation. It's cost management. 

Holding some coffee back helps manage weather risk and recover costs while everyone watches how the 2026 crop develops.

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Fertiliser costs help set that timing too. Rabobank notes that in August 2025 a producer needed about 1.2 bags of coffee (60 kg) to buy one tonne of fertiliser (20-05-20), better than 1.7 bags in August 2024, thanks to lower fertiliser prices (especially urea) and stronger coffee prices. That improves the maths but doesn’t remove the need to sell when bills fall due. (rabobank.com)

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The Roaster's Playbook for 2025

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This season is defined by exceptional quality and careful planning. The coffee is excellent, but as Roberta noted, “The stock is in the hands of the producers… They are waiting for better prices.” To navigate this market, you need a clear strategy. Here’s your plan to make sure you're ready.

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Secure your coffee profile now

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The quality of the 2025 harvest is not a constraint. But quantity is. The best lots are claimed quickly.

• What to do: Decide on the exact cup profile and volume you need for the coming months.
• How to do it: Use the Algrano platform to browse available lots, request samples, and share your feedback directly with the producer. The process is straightforward: first, align with the seller on four basics—the cup profile, total volume, shipping window, and price difference. From there, you can use the platform to request and track samples, share cupping feedback, sign the contract, and book the shipment, ensuring the coffee that arrives is a perfect match for the cup you approved."

Plan your shipments strategically

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“Ship one container and then wait for the next one. It’s difficult to find a replacement for Brazilian coffee. (...) Containers are moving slowly, but they’re moving.” Fabrício Teixeira, Sancoffee

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Producers are selling in smaller batches to manage costs amid market volatility. This pattern is amplified by the 50% U.S. import tariff, which has slowed down shipments. The market has changed, and your buying frequency should adapt. Many roasters are ordering one container now and planning to review their needs in January or February. (Reuters, 22 Aug 2025, 9 Sep 2025; 26 Sep 2025).

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Luiz Henrique remembers how financially sustainable producers think about their prices:

“Producers usually set an ideal selling price. This price is intended to cover costs and still have a good margin. Once the target price is met and the sale formalised, buyers can split the shipments over time on a schedule that suits them without changing the coffee they chose.”

• What to do: Plan your shipments and agree on a pricing model now.
• How to do it: Once you and the producer agree on a price, you can split the shipments to suit your schedule. This allows you to secure your supply without disrupting your cash flow or running out of coffee.

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Partner with your producer

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By understanding the producer's financial calendar and approach, you can build a stronger, more reliable partnership. Sancoffee, for instance, has leveraged Algrano from the beginning, dedicating its own team and facilities to the platform. This deep integration is what makes the coffee move so smoothly—from meticulous milling and quality control at origin to ensuring documents are prepared correctly, freight is booked on time, and exports are completed without delays.

• What to do: Talk to your producer about their selling strategy and plan around their needs.
• How to do it: Many producers are working on a 'differential pricing model.' This model allows you to lock in the quality premium now and set the final price later, giving both you and the producer stability. For larger volumes, Algrano’s Grower Capital can help you commit to these agreements, giving your partner the security they need. Building these direct trade relationships is what makes the model work. In the words of roaster Roberta Armentano, “Without Algrano there is no direct trade for me.”

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What to expect next: A look at the 2026 crop

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This year’s harvest is mostly finished, and now everyone is thinking about the 2026 crop. The flowers in September looked good, (Rabobank, 11 Sep 2025) but we won't know the real size of the next harvest until February, after the coffee cherries grow and ripen. So, for you, this means you shouldn't expect the market or prices to change much for the next couple of months.